Manchester Unitedvs
Aston Villa
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.4
Manchester United xG
Expected goals
1.5
Aston Villa xG
59%
Both Teams to Score
55%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
12%
1–2
9%
0–1
8%
1–0
8%
2–1
8%
0–0
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $39K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Manchester United
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
1.0 / 1.6
Last 5
0W 3D 2L
Away
Aston Villa
PPG
2.20
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.3
Last 5
3W 2D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Manchester United's current form?
Manchester United have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from Premier League