Manchester United vs Manchester City
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.9
Manchester United xG
Expected goals
2.2
Manchester City xG
53%
Both Teams to Score
60%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–2
11%
0–1
10%
1–2
10%
1–1
9%
0–3
8%
1–3
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $880K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Manchester United
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.0 / 1.5
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.0 / 1.1
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Manchester City is favored with a 64% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Manchester United's current form?
Manchester United have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Manchester United won 2, drew 1, and Manchester City won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–2 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Premier League