Match Analysis

Newcastle UnitedvsArsenal

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

28%
25%
47%
Newcastle United winDrawArsenal win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game2.20
1.37Avg goals scored1.58
1.69Avg goals conceded0.59
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Newcastle United xG

Expected goals

1.6

Arsenal xG

56%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

0–1

10%

1–2

9%

0–2

8%

1–0

7%

2–1

7%

Home

Newcastle United

Newcastle United

DLLWL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.7

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Arsenal

Arsenal

DDWWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.6 / 0.6

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Arsenal is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Newcastle United's current form?

Newcastle United have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Newcastle United Win28%
Draw25%
Arsenal Win47%
BTTS56%
Over 2.553%