Newcastle Unitedvs
Aston Villa
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.6
Newcastle United xG
Expected goals
1.5
Aston Villa xG
62%
Both Teams to Score
60%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
2–1
9%
1–2
8%
0–1
7%
1–0
7%
2–0
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $39K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Newcastle United
PPG
0.80
Avg goals
1.4 / 1.7
Last 5
1W 1D 3L
Away
Aston Villa
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.3
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Newcastle United's current form?
Newcastle United have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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