Match Analysis

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

37%
19%
44%
Tottenham Hotspur winDrawAston Villa win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.80
0.53Avg goals scored0.98
2.12Avg goals conceded3.02
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Tottenham Hotspur xG

Expected goals

1.4

Aston Villa xG

55%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

11

12%

01

9%

10

9%

12

9%

21

8%

00

7%

Home

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur

WLWLD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 2.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

LLWWW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.0 / 3.0

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Tottenham Hotspurall timeAston Villa
3W
3W
3 May 26
Aston Villa12Tottenham Hotspur
19 Oct 25
Tottenham Hotspur12Aston Villa
16 May 25
Aston Villa20Tottenham Hotspur
3 Nov 24
Tottenham Hotspur41Aston Villa
10 Mar 24
Aston Villa04Tottenham Hotspur
26 Nov 23
Tottenham Hotspur12Aston Villa

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

Aston Villa is favored with a 44% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Tottenham Hotspur's current form?

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Tottenham Hotspur won 3, drew 0, and Aston Villa won 3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Tottenham Hotspur Win37%
Draw19%
Aston Villa Win44%
BTTS55%
Over 2.551%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi