Match Analysis

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

10%
14%
76%
Tottenham Hotspur winDrawNewcastle United win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.60
0.52Avg goals scored1.85
2.13Avg goals conceded1.70
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.7

Tottenham Hotspur xG

Expected goals

2.7

Newcastle United xG

47%

Both Teams to Score

66%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

02

12%

03

11%

01

9%

12

9%

13

8%

04

7%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $175K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Tottenham Hotspur
10%
42%
-32%
Draw
14%
Newcastle United
76%
58%
+18%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur

WLWLD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 2.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Newcastle United

Newcastle United

WDLWD

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.7

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Tottenham Hotspurall timeNewcastle United
1W
1D
4W
10 Feb 26
Tottenham Hotspur12Newcastle United
2 Dec 25
Newcastle United22Tottenham Hotspur
4 Jan 25
Tottenham Hotspur12Newcastle United
1 Sep 24
Newcastle United21Tottenham Hotspur
13 Apr 24
Newcastle United40Tottenham Hotspur
10 Dec 23
Tottenham Hotspur41Newcastle United

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?

Newcastle United is favored with a 76% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Tottenham Hotspur's current form?

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Tottenham Hotspur won 1, drew 1, and Newcastle United won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–2 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Tottenham Hotspur Win10%
Draw14%
Newcastle United Win76%
BTTS47%
Over 2.566%

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