Match Analysis

Al AhlivsAl Diriyah

KSA Saudi Pro League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

65%
19%
16%
Al Ahli winDrawAl Diriyah win

Key Stats

2.60Points per game1.20
2.98Avg goals scored0.73
1.29Avg goals conceded1.12
4–1–0Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.2

Al Ahli xG

Expected goals

1

Al Diriyah xG

56%

Both Teams to Score

62%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–0

10%

2–1

10%

1–0

9%

1–1

9%

3–0

7%

3–1

7%

Home

Al Ahli

Al Ahli

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

3.0 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Away

Al Diriyah

Al Diriyah

DWDLD

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.7 / 1.1

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Al Ahli vs Al Diriyah?

Al Ahli is favored with a 65% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Al Ahli's current form?

Al Ahli have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 11 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Al Ahli Win65%
Draw19%
Al Diriyah Win16%
BTTS56%
Over 2.562%