Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Atalanta xG
Expected goals
0.7
Bologna xG
41%
Both Teams to Score
43%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
15%
2–0
13%
1–1
11%
0–0
9%
2–1
9%
3–0
7%
Home
Atalanta
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
1.6 / 1.0
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Bologna
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
0.8 / 1.1
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta is favored with a 56% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Atalanta's current form?
Atalanta have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Atalanta won 2, drew 1, and Bologna won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Serie A