Match Analysis

AtalantavsNapoli

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

39%
21%
40%
Atalanta winDrawNapoli win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.40
2.07Avg goals scored1.71
2.18Avg goals conceded1.33
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.9

Atalanta xG

Expected goals

1.9

Napoli xG

72%

Both Teams to Score

73%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

8%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

2–2

7%

1–3

5%

2–3

5%

Home

Atalanta

Atalanta

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.1 / 2.2

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Napoli

Napoli

DWLLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atalanta vs Napoli?

Napoli is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atalanta's current form?

Atalanta have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atalanta Win39%
Draw21%
Napoli Win40%
BTTS72%
Over 2.573%