Match Analysis

FiorentinavsAtalanta

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

34%
20%
46%
Fiorentina winDrawAtalanta win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.40
1.14Avg goals scored2.07
2.30Avg goals conceded2.19
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.9

Fiorentina xG

Expected goals

2.2

Atalanta xG

76%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

8%

1–1

7%

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

1–3

6%

2–3

5%

Home

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

LLLDW

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.1 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Atalanta

Atalanta

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.1 / 2.2

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Atalanta is favored with a 46% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Fiorentina's current form?

Fiorentina have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Fiorentina Win34%
Draw20%
Atalanta Win46%
BTTS76%
Over 2.578%