Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.3
Fiorentina xG
Expected goals
2.8
Frosinone xG
24%
Both Teams to Score
60%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–2
18%
0–3
16%
0–1
13%
0–4
12%
0–5
6%
0–0
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $900K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Fiorentina
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
0.3 / 2.8
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Frosinone
PPG
2.40
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
Frosinone is favored with a 70% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Fiorentina's current form?
Fiorentina have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Serie A meetings, Fiorentina won 1, drew 1, and Frosinone won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–2 (18% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 24%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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