Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.3
Fiorentina xG
Expected goals
4
Napoli xG
25%
Both Teams to Score
80%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–3
14%
0–4
14%
0–5
12%
0–2
11%
0–1
5%
1–3
4%
Home
Fiorentina
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
0.3 / 2.8
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Napoli
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.8 / 0.3
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Napoli is favored with a 88% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Fiorentina's current form?
Fiorentina have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Fiorentina won 1, drew 1, and Napoli won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (14% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Serie A