Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.4
Monza xG
Expected goals
2.1
Atalanta xG
80%
Both Teams to Score
83%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
7%
2–2
7%
1–1
6%
1–2
6%
3–2
6%
2–3
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $43K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Monza
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.0 / 2.1
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Atalanta
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.1 / 2.2
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Monza vs Atalanta?
Monza is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Monza's current form?
Monza have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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