Match Analysis

MonzavsFiorentina

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

57%
19%
24%
Monza winDrawFiorentina win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game0.80
2.05Avg goals scored1.15
2.11Avg goals conceded2.29
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.5

Monza xG

Expected goals

1.6

Fiorentina xG

73%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

8%

1–1

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

7%

3–2

6%

1–2

5%

Home

Monza

Monza

DWLWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.0 / 2.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

LLLDW

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.1 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Monza vs Fiorentina?

Monza is favored with a 57% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Monza's current form?

Monza have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Monza Win57%
Draw19%
Fiorentina Win24%
BTTS73%
Over 2.578%