Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.8
Monza xG
Expected goals
3.1
Udinese xG
53%
Both Teams to Score
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–2
10%
0–3
10%
0–4
8%
1–2
8%
1–3
8%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $620K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Monza
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.0 / 4.0
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Udinese
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
0.9 / 0.8
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 4 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Monza vs Udinese?
Udinese is favored with a 68% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Monza's current form?
Monza have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 4 Serie A meetings, Monza won 1, drew 2, and Udinese won 1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–2 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 4 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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