Match Analysis

AzerbaijanvsLithuania

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

39%
30%
31%
Azerbaijan winDrawLithuania win

Key Stats

2.20Points per game1.40
0.67Avg goals scored0.95
0.31Avg goals conceded0.69
3–2–0Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.1

Azerbaijan xG

Expected goals

1

Lithuania xG

42%

Both Teams to Score

35%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

13%

1–1

13%

0–0

12%

0–1

12%

1–2

7%

2–0

7%

Home

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan

WDDWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

0.7 / 0.3

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Away

Lithuania

Lithuania

LWDWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.9 / 0.7

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Azerbaijan is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Azerbaijan's current form?

Azerbaijan have recorded 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 3 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Azerbaijan Win39%
Draw30%
Lithuania Win31%
BTTS42%
Over 2.535%