Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.5
Belgium xG
Expected goals
1.5
Italy xG
60%
Both Teams to Score
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
1–2
8%
2–1
8%
0–1
7%
1–0
7%
0–2
6%
Home
Belgium
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.5 / 1.3
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Italy
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.0 / 1.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Belgium vs Italy?
This is an evenly matched fixture. Both teams have similar win probabilities based on current form.
What is Belgium's current form?
Belgium have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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