Match Analysis

BelgiumvsItaly

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

38%
24%
38%
Belgium winDrawItaly win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game2.00
1.50Avg goals scored2.04
1.33Avg goals conceded1.23
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Belgium xG

Expected goals

1.5

Italy xG

60%

Both Teams to Score

58%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

0–1

7%

1–0

7%

0–2

6%

Home

Belgium

Belgium

LWLWL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Away

Italy

Italy

WDWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Belgium vs Italy?

This is an evenly matched fixture. Both teams have similar win probabilities based on current form.

What is Belgium's current form?

Belgium have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Belgium Win38%
Draw24%
Italy Win38%
BTTS60%
Over 2.558%