Match Analysis

BulgariavsEstonia

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

33%
31%
36%
Bulgaria winDrawEstonia win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.20
0.77Avg goals scored0.49
1.23Avg goals conceded0.23
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1

Bulgaria xG

Expected goals

1

Estonia xG

40%

Both Teams to Score

32%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–0

14%

0–1

14%

1–0

14%

1–1

14%

0–2

7%

1–2

7%

Home

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Estonia

Estonia

DWDDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bulgaria vs Estonia?

Estonia is favored with a 36% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bulgaria's current form?

Bulgaria have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (14% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bulgaria Win33%
Draw31%
Estonia Win36%
BTTS40%
Over 2.532%