Match Analysis

CroatiavsEngland

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

12%
15%
73%
Croatia winDrawEngland win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game2.00
0.97Avg goals scored3.56
3.54Avg goals conceded0.69
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Croatia xG

Expected goals

2.9

England xG

66%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

8%

1–3

8%

0–2

7%

0–3

7%

1–1

6%

1–4

6%

Home

Croatia

Croatia

DLLWL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.0 / 3.5

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

England

England

DWWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

3.6 / 0.7

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Croatia vs England?

England is favored with a 73% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Croatia's current form?

Croatia have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Croatia Win12%
Draw15%
England Win73%
BTTS66%
Over 2.578%