Match Analysis

EstoniavsBulgaria

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

43%
30%
27%
Estonia winDrawBulgaria win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game0.60
0.49Avg goals scored0.77
0.23Avg goals conceded1.23
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)0–3–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Estonia xG

Expected goals

0.8

Bulgaria xG

38%

Both Teams to Score

32%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

16%

0–0

14%

1–1

13%

0–1

11%

2–0

10%

2–1

8%

Home

Estonia

Estonia

DWDDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Estonia is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Estonia's current form?

Estonia have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (16% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Estonia Win43%
Draw30%
Bulgaria Win27%
BTTS38%
Over 2.532%