Match Analysis

EstoniavsLuxembourg

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

49%
29%
22%
Estonia winDrawLuxembourg win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game1.40
0.49Avg goals scored0.46
0.23Avg goals conceded1.75
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Estonia xG

Expected goals

0.8

Luxembourg xG

40%

Both Teams to Score

35%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

16%

1–1

13%

0–0

12%

0–1

10%

2–0

10%

2–1

8%

Home

Estonia

Estonia

DWDDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Estonia vs Luxembourg?

Estonia is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Estonia's current form?

Estonia have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (16% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Estonia Win49%
Draw29%
Luxembourg Win22%
BTTS40%
Over 2.535%