Match Analysis

FrancevsItaly

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

46%
25%
29%
France winDrawItaly win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game2.00
1.81Avg goals scored2.04
0.53Avg goals conceded1.23
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.6

France xG

Expected goals

1.2

Italy xG

56%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

1–0

10%

2–1

9%

2–0

8%

0–1

7%

1–2

7%

Home

France

France

WDWWL

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.8 / 0.5

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Italy

Italy

WDWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win France vs Italy?

France is favored with a 46% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is France's current form?

France have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

France Win46%
Draw25%
Italy Win29%
BTTS56%
Over 2.553%