Match Analysis

IcelandvsBulgaria

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

55%
25%
20%
Iceland winDrawBulgaria win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game0.60
1.72Avg goals scored0.77
0.23Avg goals conceded1.22
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)0–3–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.6

Iceland xG

Expected goals

0.8

Bulgaria xG

44%

Both Teams to Score

43%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

15%

1–1

12%

2–0

12%

0–0

9%

2–1

9%

0–1

7%

Home

Iceland

Iceland

DWWDL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.7 / 0.2

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Iceland vs Bulgaria?

Iceland is favored with a 55% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Iceland's current form?

Iceland have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Iceland Win55%
Draw25%
Bulgaria Win20%
BTTS44%
Over 2.543%