Match Analysis

IcelandvsLuxembourg

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

61%
23%
16%
Iceland winDrawLuxembourg win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game1.40
1.73Avg goals scored0.46
0.23Avg goals conceded1.75
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.8

Iceland xG

Expected goals

0.8

Luxembourg xG

46%

Both Teams to Score

48%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

13%

2–0

12%

1–1

11%

2–1

10%

0–0

7%

3–0

7%

Home

Iceland

Iceland

DWWDL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.7 / 0.2

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Iceland is favored with a 61% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Iceland's current form?

Iceland have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Iceland Win61%
Draw23%
Luxembourg Win16%
BTTS46%
Over 2.548%