Match Analysis

ItalyvsFrance

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

38%
25%
37%
Italy winDrawFrance win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game2.00
2.04Avg goals scored1.81
1.23Avg goals conceded0.53
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.4

Italy xG

Expected goals

1.4

France xG

57%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

0–1

9%

1–0

9%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

0–0

6%

Home

Italy

Italy

WDWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

France

France

WDWWL

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.8 / 0.5

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Italy vs France?

Italy is favored with a 38% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Italy's current form?

Italy have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Italy Win38%
Draw25%
France Win37%
BTTS57%
Over 2.553%