Match Analysis

ItalyvsTürkiye

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

66%
19%
15%
Italy winDrawTürkiye win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game0.60
2.04Avg goals scored0.51
1.23Avg goals conceded2.78
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)1–0–4

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.3

Italy xG

Expected goals

1

Türkiye xG

57%

Both Teams to Score

64%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–0

10%

2–1

10%

1–0

8%

1–1

8%

3–0

7%

3–1

7%

Home

Italy

Italy

WDWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Türkiye

Türkiye

LLLLW

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.5 / 2.8

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Italy vs Türkiye?

Italy is favored with a 66% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Italy's current form?

Italy have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Italy Win66%
Draw19%
Türkiye Win15%
BTTS57%
Over 2.564%