Match Analysis

LithuaniavsAzerbaijan

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

38%
30%
32%
Lithuania winDrawAzerbaijan win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game2.20
0.94Avg goals scored0.67
0.69Avg goals conceded0.31
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.1

Lithuania xG

Expected goals

1

Azerbaijan xG

42%

Both Teams to Score

35%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

13%

1–1

13%

0–0

12%

0–1

12%

1–2

7%

2–0

7%

Home

Lithuania

Lithuania

LWDWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.9 / 0.7

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan

WDDWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

0.7 / 0.3

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?

Lithuania is favored with a 38% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lithuania's current form?

Lithuania have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 3 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lithuania Win38%
Draw30%
Azerbaijan Win32%
BTTS42%
Over 2.535%