Match Analysis

LuxembourgvsBulgaria

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

34%
28%
38%
Luxembourg winDrawBulgaria win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game0.60
0.46Avg goals scored0.77
1.75Avg goals conceded1.23
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)0–3–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Luxembourg xG

Expected goals

1.2

Bulgaria xG

49%

Both Teams to Score

43%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

0–1

11%

1–0

11%

0–0

9%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

Home

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

Bulgaria is favored with a 38% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Luxembourg's current form?

Luxembourg have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Luxembourg Win34%
Draw28%
Bulgaria Win38%
BTTS49%
Over 2.543%