Match Analysis

LuxembourgvsEstonia

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

28%
30%
42%
Luxembourg winDrawEstonia win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.20
0.46Avg goals scored0.49
1.75Avg goals conceded0.23
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.9

Luxembourg xG

Expected goals

1.1

Estonia xG

40%

Both Teams to Score

32%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

15%

0–0

14%

1–1

13%

1–0

12%

0–2

8%

1–2

7%

Home

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Estonia

Estonia

DWDDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Luxembourg vs Estonia?

Estonia is favored with a 42% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Luxembourg's current form?

Luxembourg have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Luxembourg Win28%
Draw30%
Estonia Win42%
BTTS40%
Over 2.532%