Match Analysis

SpainvsCroatia

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

75%
14%
11%
Spain winDrawCroatia win

Key Stats

2.60Points per game0.80
2.97Avg goals scored0.97
1.23Avg goals conceded3.54
4–1–0Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

3.1

Spain xG

Expected goals

1.2

Croatia xG

67%

Both Teams to Score

80%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

8%

3–1

8%

2–0

7%

3–0

7%

4–1

6%

1–1

5%

Home

Spain

Spain

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

3.0 / 1.2

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Away

Croatia

Croatia

DLLWL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.0 / 3.5

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Spain vs Croatia?

Spain is favored with a 75% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Spain's current form?

Spain have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Spain Win75%
Draw14%
Croatia Win11%
BTTS67%
Over 2.580%