Match Analysis

SpainvsEngland

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

36%
22%
42%
Spain winDrawEngland win

Key Stats

2.60Points per game2.00
2.97Avg goals scored3.56
1.23Avg goals conceded0.69
4–1–0Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Spain xG

Expected goals

1.9

England xG

70%

Both Teams to Score

70%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

9%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

2–2

7%

0–1

5%

0–2

5%

Home

Spain

Spain

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

3.0 / 1.2

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Away

England

England

DWWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

3.6 / 0.7

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Spain vs England?

England is favored with a 42% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Spain's current form?

Spain have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Spain Win36%
Draw22%
England Win42%
BTTS70%
Over 2.570%