Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.1
Wales xG
Expected goals
1.5
Portugal xG
52%
Both Teams to Score
48%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
12%
0–1
11%
1–2
9%
0–2
8%
1–0
8%
0–0
7%
Home
Wales
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
0.5 / 1.2
Last 5
1W 0D 4L
Away
Portugal
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
2.3 / 1.0
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Wales vs Portugal?
Portugal is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Wales's current form?
Wales have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from UEFA Nations League